October 19, 2018

4.4 Million Lumia Sales is Indeed Impressive

920-Hero-1-jpgNokia had just pre-released their Q4 2012 financial result. Major interest point for everyone is 4.4 million Lumia phones sold/shipped in the quarter. Then I read some comments from Beta News, saying the 4.4 million is not impressive at all. I feel like having something say.

When I first saw the number in the news this morning, I was really disappointed. I hoped for a 7~8 million Lumia units sold in Q4. After all, a phone like Lumia 920 is remarkable better than anything in the market. It should sell well and signs had pointed to a good number for the last quarter. After quite a bit of reading and a couple hours of cooling down, I start get excited about the result.

People including myself forgot about where is whole Windows Phone and Lumia came from. There were a whole array of 7.5 Lumias, including Lumia 900, 800, 710, 610, 510, only two WP8 devices: Lumia 920, 820. Honestly, 820 is pretty weak as a mid range phone, e.g. 800X400 screen resolution is really too low for this range of device. All the WP7 devices are, as we know, temporary setups. That’s the very reason why Microsoft didn’t spend much marketing on WP7 devices, knowing they won’t carry on. So we are left only one device that is really selling, which is Lumia 920.

I don’t agree to what the Beta News say, but he got some facts right. There are 92 days in the quarter. Lumia 920/820 really started shipping at 14th, November, that’s 45 days gone. Also it started with limited markets, with very limited amount. Plus the those exclusive deals in the US and Europe, which further limited availability. We can assume, in light of the release of WP8 devices, who is going to buy a WP7 device knowing they can’t get a update to WP8.

Imagine what the number would be if Lumia 920 (plus 620) sold the full quarter. And imagine all the WP7 devices were WP8 devices? I think 15 million Lumia would have been sold Q4.

So, 4.4 million Lumia in Q4 is indeed impressive. Not because the absolute number, but because it is sign of what’s for the future.

Based on this number and the recent history of Lumia sales. I like to see 8 millions in Q1/13, 15 million Q2/13, 20 millions Lumias in Q3/13, 30 million Lumia Q4/13. That brings total sales of 72 million, about 10% market share.