August 19, 2017

HoloLens Price: Re-estimated




I decided to have some fun today. No, not because of April 1st. I am serious. I don’t joke about money, like what Richard Gere said in Pretty Woman. Anyway, I made sure I put “estimate” in the tile, and here we go.

I have done the same thing not long ago, in “HoloLen: Price Estimation“, I have given an estimation of $500~$1000, and likely $700-$900. I am still OK with that. Then Microsoft announced Surface 3 yesterday. Two things came from Surface 3 makes me write this post: Surface 3 will be the first PC to use Intel Cherry Trail processor and Surface 3 sells for $500, starting early next month.

If look carefully, you will find Surface 3 is the closest thing we have in estimating HoloLens price: They are both Windows PCs; They both use Cherry Trail CPU; They are both made by Microsoft; They will be in the market in just a few months apart. I think nothing better than Surface 3 in this regard.

Why HoloLens Is Not Kinect

My method is this: I take the Surface 3’s price $500 as the base price, subtract things Surface 3 has but HoloLens doesn’t, then add things HoloLens has but Surface 3 doesn’t.

1. Surface 3 =  $500

2. Surface 3 vapor-mag chassis is really high end material, and its kickstand is not easy to manufacture. We don’t know the materials of HoloLens’ double-ring frame, but I would put Surface 3’s chassis plus kickstand $30 above HoloLens. Now it’s $470.

3. Surface 3 has a HD LCD display panel and Corning Gorilla glass, HoloLens has a couple of layer of lenses. They have very different display technology. The HoloLens light engine is not known to anyone outside. So I put the two together and give HoloLens $100 ~ $150 more on display. Now it is $570 ~ 620.

4. Surface 3 doesn’t come with Kinect sensors. HoloLens does, actually there are two depth sensors, two RGB sensors and one IR emitter. The current Kinect price can only be a reference because it is very different now. I would add $250~350 for that, including the extra CPU. So we’ve got $820~970.

So, that’s my revised estimation: $820~970. That’s the market price. I am afraid this can be a little higher than it will turn out to be, only because I tend to be conservative (choose the higher side if I don’t know).
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  • Richard

    that sounds like alot.