October 22, 2017

HoloLens: Future Is Months Away

I decided to take a break in the “Some Business Ideas with HoloLens” series. There are some more on my list, like Holo-Map, Holo-Party, Holo-Dress up, Holo-Dance with Stars, but there are some other topics coming up to my mind, so I will get to those ideas later.

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I am currently reading a book titled: The Art of Thinking Clearly, by Rolf Dobelli. After reading this book, I realized that there are so many things I thought I already knew, actually I don’t. In one section called Disregard the Brand New, the author talks about how the world will look in fifty years:

People who pondered this fifty years ago had fanciful notions of how “the future” would look: Highways in the skies. Cities that resemble glass worlds. We would live in plastic capsules, work in underwater cities, vacation on the moon. … Our best friends would be robots, death would cured, …

He concludes by saying,

So don’t go out on limb when forecasting the future. Whatever has survived for X years will last another X years.

There are too many times, scientists’ or science fiction writers’ predictions fall flat. I remember in the 80s people got excited talking about 21st century. As it turns out, for the most part, 21st century we have seen so far sucked. Technology have evolved much slower than everyone had expected.

Technology is determined to advance, those scientific prediction of 10 or more years later is not something you can bet on. But short term predictions, like a few months later, have better a chance to be realized. When we talk about HoloLens, we are not talking about the future, we are talking about a few month down the road. And if you are like me, who have been following the development of this technology, you would know that this is a device under development for about 10 years. The biggest technology advance in HoloLens is how display technology is changed. Traditionally, images are rendered on a surface: LCD, LED, projection. HoloLens removed all these. It sends lights directly to the eyes, so that when image is formed behind the eyes, it appears like what we see the real objects. In short, display technology is totally revolutionized. There is no need for a display surface like a TV, a monitor anymore. Many people think this can’t be true, because it is too out of the world. Dramatic changes happen once in a while, it certainly didn’t happen in one day.